Iran's Next Arrow

Iran has few cards, but one is the fate of the Middle East

Deir-e Gachin Caravansarai, Kavir National Park, east of Fordow Enrichment Plant

Last night, after two decades of gridlocked nuclear negotiations, the United States broke the spine of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ordering B‑2 Spirit stealth bombers loaded with Tomahawk cruise missiles to unleash 14 heavy bunker-buster bombs on the country’s most fortified nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Once U.S. aircraft were safely outside Iranian airspace, President Trump announced:

Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. For 40 years, Iran has been saying, “Death to America! Death to Israel!” They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. We lost over 1,000 people, and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate. In particular, so many were killed by their General Qassem Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue.

This is the most crippling blow imaginable to Iran’s nuclear program. The three sites targeted represent almost all of Iran’s nuclear capacity. Natanz is its largest and oldest enrichment hub, Fordow has been producing near‑weapons‑grade uranium since 2021, and Isfahan converts and houses enriched material. Reporting for the Wall Street Journal, Laurence Norman writes that Natanz and Fordow alone “account for almost all of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities.”

Damage reports are not yet in but Isfahan is above ground and Natanz is located in the desert, partially above ground with some mountain shielding, so they are both almost certainly eliminated. But Fordow lies deep inside a mountain, beneath reinforced tunnels and blast-resistant doors. To get the job done, the Air Force dropped the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator for the first time in combat, a 30,000-pound bunker buster that can penetrate up to 200 feet of earth before detonating. The only problem is, Fordow is said to be 300 feet deep. But it is of some consolation that even if it remains operational, Fordow is currently only capable of producing uranium enriched to 60%, whereas weapons-grade is 90%.

Taking a step back, this strike came on the heels of a more comprehensive, and arguably more brazen, Israeli campaign. Earlier this month, Israel eliminated some of Iran’s top military leaders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including IRGC chief Hossein Salami, IRGC commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, IRGC senior commander Gholam Ali Rashid, and Armed Forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri.

In that assault, Israeli F-35s and drones targeted command centers, airbases, ballistic missile launchers, and aircraft, wiping out key strategic capabilities and causing what may be the most significant military decapitation Iran has ever suffered. Notably, Mossad set up a drone factory inside Iran for the mission, which might be even more impressive than Operation Grim Reaper, when it took 1,500 Hezbollah fighters out of commission with exploding pagers. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote:

The United States, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law and the NPT by attacking Iran’s peaceful nuclear installations.

The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences. Each and every member of the UN must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behavior.

In accordance with the UN Charter and its provisions allowing a legitimate response in self-defense, Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.

We can dispense with the fiction that these were “peaceful nuclear installations” right off the bat. Though it may be reassuring that Fordow is only currently able to enrich uranium to 60%, nevertheless there is no peaceful use for 60% enriched uranium. Yes, the strike probably does violate UN Charter, specifically Article 24, which says:

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.

The only legal exceptions are self-defense under Article 51, which doesn’t apply here because the U.S. was not under direct attack by Iran when it struck, or UN Security Council authorization, but there was no such resolution authorizing force here. The U.S. could argue this was a case of preemptive self-defense, and I happen to think there’s a colorable argument that hitting Iran before it goes nuclear is in fact minimizing human suffering in the long-run, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump didn’t even bother to wade into the waters of justifying the strikes in such terms.

While a full-scale war remains unlikely, the most probable forms of an Iranian retaliation are as follows. First, proxy attacks on Israeli cities via Hezbollah or Palestinian groups. Second, Iran decides it’s now or never and begins to accelerate uranium enrichment to 90%, at which point we really do have to decide how far we’re willing to go to stop the regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. Third, we begin to see a spike in asymmetric attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, or the Persian Gulf through regional proxies. Long story short, the world is about to get more violent.

But while these approaches allow Tehran to respond with without crossing thresholds that will trigger overwhelming American retaliation, Iran has a second tightrope to walk. Namely, contending with serious internal challenges. Public support for the regime is at historic lows. A 2023 survey found that only 15% of Iranians support the Islamic Republic. Protest activity has surged in waves, with rooftop chants of “Death to Khamenei” and people altering traffic signs as forms of civil disobedience. The country is ripe for a full-blown revolution. Yet its opposition remains fragmented, and the fear of civil war or foreign intervention keeps much of the public in survival mode rather than outright rebellion.

Meanwhile Russia, though symbolically aligning with Iran, is militarily constrained by its prolonged war in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Aragchi is headed to Moscow to meet with Putin, but I do wonder how fruitful such a meeting can possibly be when Moscow is already facing massive troop losses, equipment attrition, sanctions, and budgetary strain. My guess is, Putin will prove largely unwilling or unable to offer much direct military support. He may provide some weapons and intelligence, maybe diplomatic cover at the UN, but my guess is Aragchi isn’t going home happy.

That leaves China, which predictably condemned the U.S. strikes, but is currently trying to position itself as a global mediator and is just as likely to propose de-escalation as to provide Tehran with any substantial aid. Additionally, China largely halted direct arms sales to Iran back in the mid‑2000s — weapons transfers were valued at around $100 million between 2002–2005, but less than $50 million between 2007–2010. So I don’t see China reversing course on that trajectory. In fact, China is Iran’s top trade partner, mostly through discounted oil purchases that bypass Western sanctions with alternative financial networks made up of “teapot” refineries and “dark fleet” tankers, which means China has invested heavily in Iran’s infrastructure, energy, and defense sectors. Having so much money tied up in the country could further incentivize China to seek de-escalation.

In short, Iran is now in the most vulnerable position it has faced in decades. Militarily weakened, internationally isolated, and domestically unstable, its next move — whether escalation or retreat — could define the fate of Iran and the balance of power in the Middle East for the rest of our lifetimes.